Authors

Theo Vos
Christine Allen
Megha Arora
Ryan M. Barber
Zulfiqar A. Bhutta
Alexandria Brown
Austin Carter
Daniel C. Casey
Fiona J. Charlson
Alan Z. Chen
Megan Coggeshall
Leslie Cornaby
Lalit Dandona
Daniel J. Dicker
Tina Dilegge
Holly E. Erskine
Alize J. Ferrari
Christina Fitzmaurice
Tom Fleming
Mohammad H. Forouzanfar
Nancy Fullman
Peter W. Gething
Ellen M. Goldberg
Nicholas Graetz
Juanita A. Haagsma
Simon I. Hay
Catherine O. Johnson
Nicholas J. Kassebaum
Toana Kawashima
Laura Kemmer
Ibrahim A. Khalil
Yohannes Kinfu
Hmwe H. Kyu
Janni Leung
Xiaofeng Liang
Stephen S. Lim
Alan D. Lopez
Rafael Lozano
Laurie Marczak
George A. Mensah
Ali H. Mokdad
Mohsen Naghavi
Grant Nguyen
Elaine Nsoesie
Helen Olsen
David M. Pigott
Christine Pinho
Zane Rankin
Nikolas Reinig
Joshua A. Salomon
Logan Sandar
Alison Smith
Jeffrey Stanaway
Caitlyn Steiner
Stephanie Teeple
Bernadette A. Thomas
Christopher Troeger
Joseph A. Wagner
Haidong Wang
Valentine Wanga
Harvey A. Whiteford
Leo Zoeckler
Amanuel Alemu Abajobir
Kalkidan Hassen
Cristiana Abbafati
Kaja M. Abbas
Foad Abd-Allah
Biju Abraham
Ibrahim Abubakar
Laith J. Abu-Raddad
Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh
Ilana N. Ackerman
Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi
Zanfina Ademi
Arsène Kouablan Adou
Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi
Emilie Elisabet Agardh
Arnav Agarwal
Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri
Hamid Ahmadieh
Oluremi N. Ajala
Rufus Olusola Akinyemi
Nadia Akseer
Ziyad Al-Aly
Khurshid Alam
Noore K. M. Alam
Saleh Fahed Aldhahri
Miguel Angel Alegretti
Zewdie Aderaw Alemu
Lily T. Alexander
Samia Alhabib
Raghib Ali
Ala'a Alkerwi
François Alla
Peter Allebeck
Rajaa Al-Raddadi
Ubai Alsharif
Khalid A. Altirkawi
Nelson Alvis-Guzman
Azmeraw T. Amare
Alemayehu Amberbir
Heresh Amini
Walid Ammar
Stephen Marc Amrock
Hjalte H. Andersen
Gregory M. Anderson
Benjamin O. Anderson
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio
Atsede Fantahun Aregay
Johan Ärnlöv
Al Artaman
Hamid Asayesh
Reza Assadi
Suleman Atique
Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Avokpaho
Ashish Awasthi
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla
Peter Azzopardi
Umar Bacha
Alaa Badawi
Kalpana Balakrishnan
Amitava Banerjee
Aleksandra Barac
Suzanne L. Barker-Collo
Till Bärnighausen
Lars Barregard
Lope H. Barrero
Arindam Basu
Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi
Ettore Beghi
Brent Bell
Michelle L. Bell
Derrick A. Bennett
Isabela M. Bensenor
Habib Benzian
Adugnaw Berhane
Eduardo Bernabé
Balem Demtsu Betsu
Addisu Shunu Beyene
Neeraj Bhala
Samir Bhatt
Sibhatu Biadgilign
Kelly Bienhoff
Boris Bikbov
Stan Biryukov
Donal Bisanzio
Espen Bjertness
Jed Blore
Rohan Borschmann
Soufiane Boufous
Michael Brainin
Alexandra Brazinova
Nicholas J. K. Breitborde
Jonathan Brown
Rachelle Buchbinder
Geoffrey Colin Buckle
Zahid A. Butt
Bianca Calabria
Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato
Julio Cesar Campuzano
Hélène Carabin
Rosario Cárdenas
David O. Carpenter
Juan Jesus Carrero
Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela
Jacqueline Castillo Rivas
Ferrán Catalá-López
Jung-Chen Chang
Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang
Chioma Ezinne Chibueze
Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa
Jee-Young Jasmine Choi
Rajiv Chowdhury
Hanne Christensen
Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher
Liliana G. Ciobanu
Massimo Cirillo
Matthew M. Coates
Samantha M. Colquhoun
Cyrus Cooper
Monica Cortinovis
John A. Crump
Solomon Abrha Damtew
Rakhi Dandona
Farah Daoud
Paul I. Dargan
José das Neves
Gail Davey
Adrian C. Davis
Diego De Leo
Louisa Degenhardt
Liana C. Del Gobbo
Robert P. Dellavalle
Kebede Deribe
Amare Deribew
Sarah Derrett
Don C. Des Jarlais
Samath D. Dharmaratne
Preet K. Dhillon
Cesar Diaz-Torné
Eric L. Ding
Tim R. Driscoll
Leilei Duan
Manisha Dubey
Bruce Bartholow Duncan
Hedyeh Ebrahimi
Richard G. Ellenbogen
Iqbal Elyazar
Matthias Endres
Aman Yesuf Endries
Sergey Petrovich Ermakov
Babak Eshrati
Kara Estep
Talha A. Farid
Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha
André Faro
Maryam S. Farvid
Farshad Farzadfar
Valery L. Feigin
David T. Felson
Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad
Jefferson G. Fernandes
Joao C. Fernandes
Florian Fischer
Joseph R. A. Fitchett
Kyle Foreman
F. Gerry R. Fowkes
Jordan Fox
Richard C. Franklin
Joseph Friedman
Joseph Frostad
Thomas Fürst
Neal D. Futran
Belinda Gabbe
Parthasarathi Ganguly
Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé
Teshome Gebre
Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Johanna M. Geleijnse
Bradford D. Gessner
Katherine B. Gibney
Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi
Ababi Zergaw Giref
Maurice Giroud
Melkamu Dedefo Gishu
Giorgia Giussani
Elizabeth Glaser
William W. Godwin
Hector Gomez-Dantes
Philimon Gona
Amador Goodridge
Sameer Vali Gopalani
Carolyn C. Gotay
Atsushi Goto
Hebe N. Gouda
Rebecca Grainger
Felix Greaves
Francis Guillemin
Yuming Guo
Rahul Gupta
Rajeev Gupta
Vipin Gupta
Reyna A. Gutiérrez
Demewoz Haile
Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu
Gessessew Bugssa Hailu
Yara A. Halasa
Randah Ribhi Hamadeh
Samer Hamidi
Mouhanad Hammami
Jamie Hancock
Alexis J. Handal
Graeme J. Hankey
Yuantao Hao
Hilda L. Harb
Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan
Josep Maria Haro
Rasmus Havmoeller
Roderick J. Hay
Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi
Pouria Heydarpour
Hans W. Hoek
Masako Horino
Nobuyuki Horita
H. Dean Hosgood
Damian G. Hoy
Aung Soe Htet
Hsiang Huang
John J. Huang
Chantal Huynh
Marissa Iannarone
Kim Moesgaard Iburg
Kaire Innos
Manami Inoue
Veena J. Iyer
Kathryn H. Jacobsen
Nader Jahanmehr
Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic
Mehdi Javanbakht
Sudha P. Jayaraman
Achala Upendra Jayatilleke
Sun Ha Jee
Panniyammakal Jeemon
Paul N. Jensen
Ying Jiang
Tariku Jibat
Aida Jimenez-Corona
Ye Jin
Jost B. Jonas
Zubair Kabir
Yogeshwar Kalkonde
Ritul Kamal
Haidong Kan
André Karch
Corine Kakizi Karema
Chante Karimkhani
Amir Kasaeian
Anil Kaul
Norito Kawakami
Peter Njenga Keiyoro
Andrew Haddon Kemp
Andre Keren
Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran
Yousef Saleh Khader
Abdur Rahman Khan
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
Young-Ho Khang
Sahil Khera
Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja
Jagdish Khubchandani
Christian Kieling
Pauline Kim
Cho-il Kim
Daniel Kim
Yun Jin Kim
Niranjan Kissoon
Luke D. Knibbs
Ann Kristin Knudsen
Yoshihiro Kokubo
Dhaval Kolte
Jacek A. Kopec
Soewarta Kosen
Georgios A. Kotsakis
Parvaiz A. Koul
Ai Koyanagi
Michael Kravchenko
Barthelemy Kuate Defo
Burcu Kucuk Bicer
Andreas A. Kudom
Ernst J. Kuipers
G. Anil Kumar
Michael Kutz
Gene F. Kwan
Aparna Lal
Ratilal Lalloo
Tea Lallukka
Hilton Lam
Jennifer O. Lam
Sinead M. Langan
Anders Larsson
Pablo M. Lavados
Janet L. Leasher
James Leigh
Ricky Leung
Miriam Levi
Yichong Li
Yongmei Li
Juan Liang
Shiwei Liu
Yang Liu
Belinda K. Lloyd
Warren D. Lo
Giancarlo Logroscino
Katharine J. Looker
Paulo A. Lotufo
Raimundas Lunevicius
Ronan A. Lyons
Mark T. Mackay
Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek
Mahdi Mahdavi
Marek Majdan
Azeem Majeed
Reza Malekzadeh
Wagner Marcenes
David Joel Margolis
Jose Martinez-Raga
Felix Masiye
João Massano
Stephen Theodore McGarvey
John J. McGrath
Martin McKee
Brian J. McMahon
Peter A. Meaney
Alem Mehari
Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez
Alemayehu B. Mekonnen
Yohannes Adama Melaku
Peter Memiah
Ziad A. Memish
Walter Mendoza
Atte Meretoja
Tuomo J. Meretoja
Francis Apolinary Mhimbira
Anoushka Millear
Ted R. Miller
Edward J. Mills
Mojde Mirarefin
Philip B. Mitchell
Charles N. Mock
Alireza Mohammadi
Shafiu Mohammed
Lorenzo Monasta
Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez
Marcella Montico
Meghan D. Mooney
Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
Lidia Morawska
Ulrich O. Mueller
Erin Mullany
John Everett Mumford
Michele E. Murdoch
Jean B. Nachega
Gabriele Nagel
Aliya Naheed
Luigi Naldi
Vinay Nangia
John N. Newton
Marie Ng
Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni
Quyen Le Nguyen
Muhammad Imran Nisar
Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete
Joan M. Nolla
Ole F. Norheim
Rosana E. Norman
Bo Norrving
Bruno P. Nunes
Felix Akpojene Ogbo
In-Hwan Oh
Takayoshi Ohkubo
Pedro R. Olivares
Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya
Jacob Olusegun Olusanya
Alberto Ortiz
Majdi Osman
Erika Ota
Mahesh PA
Eun-Kee Park
Mahboubeh Parsaeian
Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos
Angel J. Paternina Caicedo
Scott B. Patten
George C. Patton
David M. Pereira
Rogelio Perez-Padilla
Norberto Perico
Konrad Pesudovs
Max Petzold
Michael Robert Phillips
Frédéric B. Piel
Julian David Pillay
Farhad Pishgar
Dietrich Plass
James A. Platts-Mills
Suzanne Polinder
Constance D. Pond
Svetlana Popova
Richie G. Poulton
Farshad Pourmalek
Dorairaj Prabhakaran
Noela M. Prasad
Mostafa Qorbani
Rynaz H. S. Rabiee
Amir Radfar
Anwar Rafay
Kazem Rahimi
Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
Mahfuzar Rahman
Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman
Sajjad Ur Rahman
Rajesh Kumar Rai
Sasa Rajsic
Usha Ram
Puja Rao
Amany H. Refaat
Marissa B. Reitsma
Giuseppe Remuzzi
Serge Resnikoff
Alex Reynolds
Antonio L. Ribeiro
Maria Jesus Rios Blancas
Hirbo Shore Roba
David Rojas-Rueda
Luca Ronfani
Gholamreza Roshandel
Gregory A. Roth
Dietrich Rothenbacher
Ambuj Roy
Rajesh Sagar
Ramesh Sahathevan
Juan R. Sanabria
Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño
Itamar S. Santos
João Vasco Santos
Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez
Benn Sartorius
Maheswar Satpathy
Miloje Savic
Monika Sawhney
Michael P. Schaub
Maria Inês Schmidt
Ione J. C. Schneider
Ben Schöttker
David C. Schwebel
James G. Scott
Soraya Seedat
Sadaf G. Sepanlou
Edson E. Servan-Mori
Katya A. Shackelford
Amira Shaheen
Masood Ali Shaikh
Rajesh Sharma
Upasana Sharma
Jiabin Shen
Donald S. Shepard
Kevin N. Sheth
Kenji Shibuya
Min-Jeong Shin
Rahman Shiri
Ivy Shiue
Mark G. Shrime
Inga Dora Sigfusdottir
Diego Augusto Santos Silva
Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira
Abhishek Singh
Jasvinder A. Singh
Om Prakash Singh
Prashant Kumar Singh
Anna Sivonda
Vegard Skirbekk
Jens Christoffer Skogen
Amber Sligar
Karen Sliwa, Australian Catholic University
Michael Soljak
Kjetil Søreide
Reed J. D. Sorensen
Joan B. Soriano
Luciano A. Sposato
Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy
Vasiliki Stathopoulou
Nicholas Steel
Dan J. Stein
Timothy J. Steiner
Sabine Steinke
Lars Stovner
Konstantinos Stroumpoulis
Bruno F. Sunguya
Patrick Sur
Soumya Swaminathan
Bryan L. Sykes
Cassandra E. I. Szoeke
Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
Jukka S. Takala
Nikhil Tandon
David Tanne
Mohammad Tavakkoli
Bineyam Taye
Hugh R. Taylor
Braden J. Te Ao
Bemnet Amare Tedla
Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
Alan J. Thomson
Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman
Amanda G. Thrift
George D. Thurston
Ruoyan Tobe-Gai
Marcello Tonelli
Roman Topor-Madry
Fotis Topouzis
Bach Xuan Tran
Thomas Truelsen
Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene
Miltiadis Tsilimbaris
Abera Kenay Tura
Emin Murat Tuzcu
Stefanos Tyrovolas
Kingsley N. Ukwaja
Eduardo A. Undurraga
Chigozie Jesse Uneke
Olalekan A. Uthman
Coen H. van Gool
Yuri Y. Varakin
Tommi Vasankari
Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian
Raj Kumar Verma
Francesco S. Violante
Sergey K. Vladimirov
Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov
Stein Emil Vollset
Gregory R. Wagner
Stephen G. Waller
Linhong Wang
David A. Watkins
Scott Weichenthal
Elisabete Weiderpass
Robert G. Weintraub
Andrea Werdecker
Ronny Westerman
Richard A. White
Hywel C. Williams
Charles Shey Wiysonge
Charles D. A. Wolfe
Sungho Won
Rachel Woodbrook
Mamo Wubshet
Denis Xavier
Gelin Xu
Ajit Kumar Yadav
Lijing L. Yan
Yuichiro Yano
Mehdi Yaseri
Pengpeng Ye
Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo
Paul Yip
Naohiro Yonemoto
Seok-Jun Yoon
Mustafa Z. Younis
Chuanhua Yu
Zoubida Zaidi
Maysaa El Sayed Zaki
Hajo Zeeb
Maigeng Zhou
Sanjay Zodpey
Liesl Joanna Zuhlke
Christopher J. L. Murray

Publication Date

2016

Abstract

Background: Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases ( NCDs ) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 ( GBD 2015 ), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.

Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility ( the Socio-demographic Index [SDI] ) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.

Findings: We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections ( 17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion ) and diarrhoeal diseases ( 2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion ). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion ( 2·35–2·37 billion ) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability ( YLDs ) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost ( YLLs ) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Interpretation: Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability ( YLDs ) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

School/Institute

Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research

Document Type

Open Access Journal Article

Access Rights

Open Access

Notes

© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license.

Included in

Public Health Commons

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